Why should you care about risk based testing?
That what I'll cover here, why? Because I'm being told by many testing experts on my podcasts that they constantly struggle with fast-paced software development.
This shows me that testing teams face an impossible challenge: comprehensive testing with limited time and resources. You have thousands of test cases, tight deadlines, and stakeholders demanding both speed and quality.
The question isn't whether you can test everything—it's how you decide what to test first.
This is where risk-based testing transforms your approach from reactive to strategic.
Drawing from real-world insights of testing experts Bob Crews and Jean Ann Harrison shared at our annual Automation Guild conference, this guide reveals how to implement risk-based testing that actually works in practice.
What is Risk-Based Testing?
Risk-based testing is a method that prioritizes test execution based on the potential risk of failure and the impact of that failure on users and business operations.
As Bob Crews puts it: “If you have 1,000 test cases and limited time, how do you pick which to execute? That's what risk-based testing helps answer.”
Unlike traditional testing approaches that treat all features equally, risk-based testing focuses your limited time and resources where they matter most—on high-risk areas of the software.
It's a structured approach to risk assessment that adapts your testing strategy to product complexity, release timelines, and business criticality.
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The Core Principle
Remember, not all software components carry equal risk.
A cosmetic bug in a rarely-used admin panel poses minimal threat to your business, while a payment processing failure could cost thousands of dollars per hour and damage customer trust permanently.
Risk-based testing acknowledges this reality and provides a framework for making intelligent decisions about where to focus testing efforts.
Why Risk-Based Testing Works in Real Projects
Jean Ann Harrison's extensive experience in regulated industries, including medical devices and wearable tech, demonstrates that risk management isn't just theory—it's essential practice. “Every release includes a reassessed risk table,” she explains. “You track impact, likelihood, and mitigation—not just bugs.”
Real-World Benefits
- Prioritized Testing Efforts Risk-based testing matches the level of test effort to the level of risk, ensuring higher-risk items receive more thorough testing. As Bob Crews emphasizes: “It's not just about coverage—it's about value.”
- Increased Software Quality By focusing on high-risk areas, teams prevent critical failures before they happen. This approach helps identify critical defects early in the development lifecycle and ensures thorough testing of important functions.
- Better Stakeholder Communication Risk scoring helps justify testing decisions to business and product teams. It provides a framework for clear communication about risks in language all stakeholders understand.
- Enhanced Risk Visibility Teams don't just identify risk—they make it visible, actionable, and trackable throughout the test process.
How to Perform Risk Assessment in Software Testing
Effective risk assessment involves identifying potential risks and assigning impact and likelihood scores to prioritize testing efforts systematically.
Bob Crews' Risk Scoring Formula
Bob Crews has developed a practical formula for calculating probability scores:
Probability = ((Complexity × 3) + (Frequency × 2) + Newness) ÷ 3
This formula weights factors based on their importance in predicting failure likelihood:
- Complexity (Weight 3): Complex components statistically contain more defects
- Frequency (Weight 2): Frequently used components have higher exposure to failure
- Newness (Weight 1): New functionality carries inherent risk
For each factor, use a simple 1-3 scale:
- Low (simple, infrequent, or mature)
- Medium (moderate complexity, usage, or newness)
- High (complex, frequent, or completely new)
Impact Assessment
Separately assess impact using a 0-10 scale:
- 0-2: Minimal impact, cosmetic issues only
- 3-4: Minor operational impact with workarounds available
- 5-6: Significant impact on user experience or business operations
- 7-8: Major impact affecting critical business processes
- 9-10: Catastrophic impact threatening business viability
Chat About Risk in our Community
Final Risk Score = Probability × Impact
Types of Risk to Consider
Jean Ann Harrison frames risk assessment through real consequences:
- Reputational Risk: Damage to brand reputation and customer trust
- Compliance Risk: Failing regulatory audits (e.g., FDA compliance)
- Physical Harm: Safety risks in systems like robotic surgery
- Business Disruption: Operational failures affecting revenue
- Security Risk: Data breaches and unauthorized access
She encourages testers to ask: “Who could be harmed, how badly, and how likely is it?”
How to Prioritize Testing Efforts Based on Risk
Once you've calculated risk scores, plot components on a risk quadrant to visualize and defend test priorities:
The Four-Quadrant Approach
- Quadrant 4 (High Impact, High Probability): Test first with comprehensive coverage
- Quadrant 3 (High Impact, Low Probability): Test second, focusing on high-impact scenarios
- Quadrant 2 (High Probability, Low Impact): Test third with automated or basic checks
- Quadrant 1 (Low Impact, Low Probability): Test last or defer if time is constrained
This framework helps testing teams make fast, defensible decisions, especially under time constraints.
Risk-Based Testing Techniques That Actually Work
Visual Risk Mapping
Create heat maps displaying risk levels across system components using color coding—red for high-risk areas, yellow for medium-risk, and green for low-risk.
These visual tools serve as powerful communication aids for stakeholders.
Collaborative Risk Scoring
Bob Crews advocates for team-based risk assessment sessions: “Get the team together… give each person five seconds to hold up a score card for impact, then for probability, average the score, compute the risk score.”
This approach combines individual expertise with group validation, often achieving 90% consensus on risk scores.
Risk-Based Test Automation
Prioritize test automation based on risk scores rather than technical ease of automation.
High-risk, frequently executed test cases should receive automation priority even if they require more complex implementation.
Continuous Risk Reassessment
Risk profiles change as development progresses. Regularly reassess risks based on:
- New defects discovered during testing
- Changes in requirements or business priorities
- Feedback from stakeholders or users
- Performance data from production systems
Risk-Based Testing in Agile Environments
Risk-based testing adapts well to agile methodologies when properly implemented.
Sprint-Level Implementation
Bob Crews applies risk-based testing in agile sprints by “identifying high-risk stories and attaching exploratory sessions to them.” This approach involves:
- Story Risk Scoring: Assign risk scores to user stories during sprint planning
- Risk-Based Prioritization: Use risk scores alongside business value for story prioritization
- Daily Risk Monitoring: Include risk status updates in daily standups
- Sprint Retrospective Reviews: Evaluate risk assessment effectiveness
Stakeholder Involvement
Jean Ann Harrison emphasizes: “As long as testers are at the table to talk risk, you're doing it right.”
Risk-based testing helps shift conversations from “what can we test?” to “what should we test, and why?”
How to Communicate Risk Without Fear
Effective risk communication is crucial for success. Jean Ann Harrison shares a cautionary tale of a test lead who failed to communicate known risk, resulting in a two-week project delay.
Best Practices for Risk Communication
- Frame Risk as Quality Assurance Harrison's philosophy: “Risk conversations aren't confrontations. They're part of quality.”
- Choose the Right Timing Consider the recipient's frame of mind and willingness to listen when communicating risks.
- Start Small Use brown bag lunches or sprint reviews to discuss potential risks before they become critical.
- Focus on Prevention Harrison emphasizes: “I always look to prevent bad things from happening, and quite frankly, that's quality assurance.”
Industry-Specific Applications
Medical Devices and Healthcare
In life-critical applications, patient safety overrides all other risk factors. Jean Ann Harrison notes: “I started really thinking about people could actually get hurt with the device I was working on.”
Medical device risk assessment must consider:
- FDA compliance requirements
- Clinical risk scenarios
- Validation in healthcare environments
- Patient safety as the primary concern
Financial Services
Financial applications require focus on:
- Regulatory compliance (SOX, PCI DSS, GDPR)
- Transaction integrity and audit trails
- Real-time processing risks
- Security and fraud prevention
E-commerce and Retail
E-commerce risk assessment emphasizes:
- Revenue impact of failures
- Customer experience risks
- Peak load and seasonal considerations
- Payment processing security
Common Mistakes to Avoid
Over-Engineering the Process
Keep risk assessment simple and practical. If risk assessment takes longer than 10 minutes per component, the process is probably too complex.
Static Risk Assessment
Risk profiles change throughout development. Failing to update assessments leads to misaligned priorities.
Ignoring Stakeholder Input
Technical teams conducting risk assessment in isolation often miss critical business context.
Treating Risk-Based Testing as Risk Avoidance
The goal is risk management, not risk elimination. Focus on making informed decisions about which risks to address, accept, or monitor.
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Measuring Success in Risk-Based Testing
Track effectiveness through key metrics:
Risk-Focused Metrics
- Risk Coverage Percentage: Percentage of high-risk components adequately tested
- Critical Defects per Test Hour: Efficiency of finding high-severity issues
- Risk Mitigation Rate: Percentage of identified risks adequately addressed
Business Impact Metrics
- Production Failure Prevention: Reduction in critical production incidents
- Stakeholder Confidence Scores: Satisfaction with risk communication and management
- Time-to-Market Improvements: Faster, more confident release decisions
Getting Started: Your Risk-Based Testing Action Plan
Step 1: Build Your Asset Inventory
Create a comprehensive list of components requiring risk assessment, including requirements, user stories, system components, and integration points.
Step 2: Conduct Initial Risk Assessment
Use Bob Crews' formula to score probability and assess impact for each component.
Step 3: Plot and Prioritize
Create risk quadrants and prioritize testing efforts based on risk scores.
Step 4: Design Risk-Driven Test Strategy
Allocate resources based on risk levels, with experienced testers focusing on high-risk areas.
Step 5: Execute and Monitor
Begin with highest-risk components and continuously monitor for changing risk profiles.
Risk Based Tools and Resources
Free Risk Scoring Calculator
To implement these expert methodologies, use TestGuild's free Risk Scoring Calculator that automates Bob Crews' proven formula and provides visual risk quadrant mapping.
Test Management Integration
Modern test management tools like ALM, QTest, and TestRail offer risk-based testing capabilities including custom risk fields, risk-based prioritization, and coverage reporting.
The Future of Risk-Based Testing
Risk-based testing continues evolving with emerging technologies:
AI and Machine Learning Integration
- Automated risk assessment based on code complexity and historical patterns
- Predictive risk analytics for proactive mitigation
- Dynamic risk adjustment as new information emerges
DevOps and Continuous Delivery
- Risk-aware deployment pipelines
- Continuous risk monitoring in production
- Risk-based feature flag strategies
Use Risk Based Testing To Transform Your Testing Strategy
Risk-based testing represents a fundamental shift toward strategic, value-driven quality assurance.
The insights from experts Bob Crews and Jean Ann Harrison demonstrate that this approach delivers measurable improvements in testing effectiveness and business outcomes.
Success lies not in perfect risk assessment, but in consistent application of systematic approaches that improve decision-making under uncertainty. Whether you're just beginning to explore risk-based testing or looking to mature existing practices, the principles and techniques in this guide provide a foundation for transforming your testing approach.
Start your risk-based testing journey today by implementing Bob Crews' probability formula and Jean Ann Harrison's prevention-focused mindset. Focus on making risk visible, actionable, and trackable throughout your testing process.
Remember: Risk doesn't have to be scary—it just has to be visible.
